Way Too Early NBA Cup Picks: Winners, Sleepers and Group Breakdowns

With NBA free agency signings slowing down and the Summer League picking up steam, the league dropped the groupings for the third annual NBA Cup this year, and the distributions of the teams this year are pretty diverse. 

Each conference has one “group of death” and one weaker group, so let’s break down these groups way too early in the year.

Eastern Conference

Group B: Boston, Detroit, Orlando, Brooklyn, and Philadelphia

The East has way less depth than the West, but Group B has four teams that could easily make it into bracket play.

Boston will be without its star player, Jayson Tatum, and will be trying to piece together its roster with the departures of Kristaps Porziņģis and Jrue Holiday. This might be a struggle for the Celtics early in the season, but I love what Joe Mazzulla can build as a coach, and I think the core of Anfernee Simons, Derrick White and Jaylen Brown is still one of, if not the, best cores in the East.

Detroit and Orlando are right behind Boston, but with another year of development and the addition of the sharp-shooting guard Desmond Bane, both of these teams could be poised for breakout years. If Cade Cunningham can be the best player in this group, I could easily see the Pistons stealing Group B.

Filling out the group are the Sixers and the Nets.

Is Joel Embiid going to be healthy?
Will Tyrese Maxey live up to his star potential?
Will V.J. Edgecombe be the missing piece for this 76ers core?

Just way too many questions out of this squad.

And the Nets are there too …

Winner: Detroit Pistons
Sleeper: Philadelphia 76ers

Group A: Cleveland, Indiana, Atlanta, Toronto, and Washington

The Pacers are the reigning Eastern Conference champions, but how will they fare without the heart and soul of their team? Tyrese Haliburton will miss the entire 2025–26 season, and I can’t see them replicating their magic from last season without him. The Cavs will be the favorites for this group, as they return most of their core that just won 60-plus regular-season games.

Cleveland might be the favorite, but Atlanta always seems to have their number. I love their offseason additions of Porziņģis and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Orlando has been getting all the media attention after adding Desmond Bane, but the additions to the young core of Trae Young, Jalen Johnson and Zaccharie Risacher make this team my favorite dark horse in the East.

Washington is way too young and unpolished to do much in the NBA Cup, and I’m not really sure Toronto is going in the right direction, so I would probably count them out of contention in 2025.

Winner: Cleveland Cavaliers
Sleeper: Atlanta Hawks

Group C: Milwaukee, New York, Chicago, Miami, and Charlotte

This group kind of stinks.

New York is by far the favorite here. The Knicks are returning most of their unit that was just in the Eastern Conference finals and also made a couple of savvy veteran additions as well.

Myles Turner was a nice pickup for the Bucks, and Giannis Antetokounmpo is still the most dominant player in the league, but I don’t really think they can match most teams that have any amount of firepower.

Chicago, Miami and Charlotte. P-U. Just three bad teams.

Winner: New York Knicks
Sleeper: Milwaukee Bucks

Western Conference

Group C: Houston, Denver, Golden State, Portland, and San Antonio

Unlike Group C in the East, this fivesome is amazing.

If you told me that all five of these teams made the playoffs next year, I genuinely wouldn’t be surprised. Houston was already a surprise two-seed last year in the West, and they added a top-10 player in the history of the NBA in Kevin Durant. That ain’t too bad.

Denver decided they still wanted to try and compete when they have the best player in the NBA by moving Michael Porter Jr. for Cam Johnson—one of those moves that feels like such a no-brainer for Denver. Just a great move that easily improves the floor of this team.

Stephen Curry. Jimmy Butler. In what is essentially a one-game series, those are two dudes you don’t want to see.

Then the back end of this group is still so deep. Portland made a great veteran addition to what was one of the top defenses in the second half of the year by adding Jrue Holiday. The Spurs already had Victor Wembanyama and also added the second overall pick, Dylan Harper. I’m not sure if the Spurs will be good yet, but they will once again be must-watch TV.

Winner: Houston Rockets
Sleeper: Portland Trail Blazers

Group A: Oklahoma City, Minnesota, Sacramento, Phoenix, Utah

OK, this group has nothing in the bottom half. It could easily have the three worst teams in the West. However, a Western Conference finals rematch between Oklahoma City and Minnesota is exactly what NBA fans are looking for. I think whoever wins that matchup comes out of this group.

Also, since the bottom half of this group has the least amount of depth, I think the loser of OKC and Minnesota might be able to get enough point differential to still win the wild card in the West.

Sacramento and Phoenix might be pretty tough to watch this season, but I am sort of intrigued by Utah. Danny Ainge is taking a lot of weird risks, and I don’t love his trades of John Collins and Collin Sexton. Yet I still think this team might surprise people a little bit this year.

Winner: Minnesota Timberwolves
Sleeper: Utah Jazz

Group B: L.A. Lakers, L.A. Clippers, Memphis, Dallas, New Orleans

I don’t think this will be LeBron’s final season, but I’m not sure he has more than two to three seasons left in the tank. Despite being 40 years old, I like him and Luka Dončić a lot in Group B. I think they match up very well with this whole group.

The Clippers might have their first full season of healthy Kawhi Leonard, and that is dangerous. They’re easily the top threat for the Lakers, but I just think they’re a matchup the Lakers can exploit—a much older team that won’t be able to run them out of the gym.

Memphis looks like it wants to dip its toes in the idea of a rebuild. Then we head over to Dallas, who lucked their way into Cooper Flagg. What healthy teammates will he have for the NBA Cup? Beats me.

I know I just made fun of the Mavericks for their injuries, so this might be hypocritical, but I kinda think the Pelicans are the biggest sleeper team in the NBA. A truly healthy Pelicans team can win 50 games. Zion Williamson is finally getting into shape, and when he’s actually played, he has been a top-10 player in the league. They have a bunch of fun pieces around Zion as well. Do not sleep on New Orleans.

Winner: Los Angeles Lakers
Sleeper: New Orleans Pelicans