UFC 317 Betting Breakdown: Top Picks for Topuria vs. Oliveira, and Pantoja vs. Kara-France

UFC 317 will be held on Saturday evening from Las Vegas, and it promises a prime opportunity for MMA fans and sports bettors to lock in on a great card for International Fight Week. 

Here are this weekend’s top UFC 317 best sports betting picks and predictions.

Felipe Lima (-180) vs. Payton Talbott

This is probably the most intriguing fight on the main card, considering the fact that both Lima and Talbott are accepted as two of the more promising prospects in the UFC. Unfortunately for Talbott, this is an even tougher grappling matchup than the one he faced in his loss to Raoni Barcelos at UFC 311 in January. Not to mention, Lima is a legitimately capable striker who has shown an ability to win fights both standing and on the ground.

I think we’ll see a more respectable effort from Talbott in terms of takedown defense. I wouldn’t bet on Lima to finish him, though I do expect Lima to take control of this fight in a manner similar to the way Barcelos did at UFC 311. I would take Lima by unanimous decision if I had to choose a specific method. I still believe Talbott has a lot of potential as a fighter, but this is probably a tougher fight than he can handle at this point. 

Ilia Topuria by submission over Charles Oliveira (+400)

If you’re looking for a prop bet to sprinkle on for the main event, this is excellent value. The odds are juiced on Topuria by KO/TKO (-190), as the 28-year-old has promised a finish within the first two or three minutes of the fight. Most fans and analysts presumed that those comments mean Topuria will be hunting for the knockout; all he really promised in reality was the early finish.

It may not happen as early as Topuria predicts, and it may not happen at all. However, 8 of Topuria’s 14 career finishes (57 percent) have come via submission, while six have come via KO/TKO. At the very least, the +400 line on this outcome does not accurately reflect Topuria’s record as a fighter and is certainly worth the shot.

Kai Kara-France vs. Alexandre Pantoja to go the distance (+100)

The fact that Alexandre Pantoja is seeking his fourth flyweight title defense suggests that he’s been on some sort of immaculate run, but the reality is that’s just not the case. Three of his last four fights have gone the distance, and he looked rather human in a unanimous decision win against Steve Erceg at UFC 301, while Kara-France beat Erceg by first-round knockout at UFC 305.

Kara-France is too inconsistent for me to feel comfortable taking outright, having lost two of his last three fights, but his ability as one of the most potent strikers in the flyweight division should allow him to hold his own in this fight. Pantoja is going to have to respect Kara-France’s power and be cautious in how he moves forward, which I expect will lead to a slower fight than many expect.