When does a minuscule chance feel like a big deal?
When it has anything to do with Shohei Ohtani.
So while Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said this week that Ohtani has a “north of zero” chance of pitching before the All-Star break, it was not exactly a signal to start gobbling up tickets.
And yet, it somehow felt as if the finish line is near for Ohtani to return to his two-way unicorn status for the first time in nearly two years — and to do it for the first time with a legitimate playoff and World Series contender in the Dodgers.
Ohtani had Tommy John revision surgery in September 2023. He picked up a second MVP that offseason, signed a 10-year, $700 million contract with the Dodgers — with $680 million deferred — then had a season unlike any other in 2024 while winning another MVP.
Ohtani’s 50-50 season on offense last year was arresting. It was 54 home runs and 59 stolen bases, to be exact. And yet, even as he has made 86 career MLB starts, his pending return to the mound with the Dodgers this year feels like a stop-traffic moment is ahead.
Will he dominate as a pitcher? Will he be buried under an avalanche of hits? Can he drive in as many runs at the plate as he gives up on the mound? Will we ever see any of it again?
The fans and the haters have a vested interest. It is MLB’s wildest dream.
For the Dodgers, it is a much-needed boost. Pitching injuries in Los Angeles have been so plentiful they should have dealt a devastating blow. Starters on the injured list include Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Roki Sasaki and Tony Gonsolin. It would have included Ohtani — if he didn’t hit as well.
In full, the Dodgers have 14 pitchers on the IL, and the club just anointed Ben Casparius with a rotation spot after the second-year right-hander proved so valuable in a relief role.
They had a bullpen game as recently as Tuesday, and it did not go well. The Dodgers lost 11-1, and their best pitcher on the night was infielder/outfielder Kiké Hernandez, who gave up one earned run in 2 1/3 innings.
Yet as much as they need pitching help, the Dodgers say they will have realistic expectations for Ohtani. They have already shown that by not rushing his return. Before the season began, Ohtani was originally scheduled to be back on the mound by May, with April then mentioned as a possibility before the team left for spring training.
The outlook was moved to July, with president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman saying it’s a healthy Ohtani on the mound in October that matters — not May or June.
When he does return, Ohtani doesn’t figure to go more than four or five innings at the outset, and he is not likely to pitch more than once every seven days.
When it does happen, it seems as if it will provide as much of an emotional lift for the Dodgers as it will a practical one. And that lift will be for a club that has weathered its pitching injury issues to sit in first place by one game heading into its first matchup against the rival San Francisco Giants starting Friday.
Those Giants have rallied into second place behind a recent eight-game winning streak.
Currently, Ohtani is up to 44 pitches and three innings in his live batting practice sessions. The most recent one took place Tuesday when the club was in San Diego and Ohtani faced the team’s own players from the rookie Arizona Complex League.
Behind Ohtani stands a crew of starters ready to return from injuries. Promising young right-hander Emmet Sheehan could be two weeks from a return after undergoing Tommy John surgery in May 2023.
Snell, a two-time American League Cy Young Award winner, has dealt with two setbacks in his attempted return from shoulder inflammation but threw his first bullpen session since April when the club was in San Diego.
Glasnow threw his own bullpen session in Los Angeles as he works through his own shoulder inflammation. Sasaki is just doing light throwing as he deals with his own shoulder issue.
Once thought to be capable of chasing down the record of 116 wins in a full season, that possibility seems all but gone now. But it wasn’t the goal the Dodgers had anyway. Becoming the first repeat winner since the New York Yankees won three consecutive titles from 1998-2000 is starting to look more realistic.
Call those chances well north of zero.
