Jul 3, 2025; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets left fielder Brandon Nimmo (9) rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run against the Milwaukee Brewers during the second inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images Friday typically features a full MLB schedule, and the Fourth of July is no different. But instead of packing all the games into the evening hours, fans can enjoy and bet on baseball all day long. To that end, we’ve identified the following as the best MLB bets for Independence Day.
So, put down that sparkler and let’s take a look at a few of the matchups on the docket for July 4:
New York Yankees (-1.5) vs. New York Mets (-112), o/u 9
The Yankees enter this game desperate for a win after getting swept in four games by the Blue Jays. They’ll send Marcus Stroman to the mound. While he’s coming off a solid start—five innings of three-hit, one-run ball against the A’s—he’s been hit hard in nearly every other outing, posting an 8.15 ERA and 1.67 WHIP.
As for the Mets, it appears they’ll opt for a bullpen day. That’s not necessarily a problem considering their relievers own a 3.76 ERA.
Neither team is swinging the bats particularly well at the moment, but Stroman has struggled to find consistency. He looked better in his last outing, but we’re not ready to trust him just yet. With the way the Mets are hitting and the way their bullpen has been pitching…
Our pick: Mets ML
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Texas Rangers (+100) vs. San Diego Padres (+1.5), o/u 8.5
If you only look at his season-long stats, Texas starter Kumar Rocker doesn’t jump off the page. He’s 3–4 with a 6.13 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. That said, he hasn’t been bad over his last three starts, allowing two, two, and zero runs, respectively. Still, he’s been brutal on the road—1–4 with an 11.34 ERA.
Randy Vásquez, meanwhile, is 3–4 with a 3.84 ERA over 17 starts. He rarely goes deep into games; in six June starts, he completed five or more innings just twice. However, he’s been solid at home, posting a 3.14 ERA in eight starts.
Rocker will benefit from facing a Padres lineup that has hit just .197 over the past week. But between Vásquez and San Diego’s bullpen, the Rangers’ offense could be held in check.
Our pick: Under 8.5
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Chicago White Sox (-122) vs. Colorado Rockies (+1.5), o/u 11
White Sox starter Adrian Houser has been effective in limited action, going 3–2 in seven starts with a 1.90 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. On the other side, Antonio Senzatela has struggled mightily for the Rockies. He’s 3–11 with a 6.69 ERA and 1.93 WHIP.
Neither team is lighting it up at the plate lately—the White Sox are hitting .219 over the last week, compared to .274 for the Rockies—but the pitching mismatch could give Chicago the edge.
If the Sox had been swinging the bats better lately, the run line would be in play. But as things stand…
Our pick: White Sox ML
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