Nobody knew in 1991 that the perennially mediocre Atlanta Braves were beginning one of the great competitive runs in baseball history. The Braves lead the National League with 3,049 wins over the last 34-plus seasons while winning 21 division titles — a mere 331 more victories and 17 more first-place finishes than they had from 1956 through 1990.
Nor did anyone realize in 1991 that the Braves’ comeback from a 9 1/2-game hole in July would become their trademark over the next three decades.
The Braves won NL East crowns after being seven games under .500 in May 1992, 10 games out of first in July 1993, eight games out of first in June 2001, 6 1/2 games out of first in June 2004 and 10 1/2 games out of first in 2022. In 2021, they didn’t get over .500 for the first time until Aug. 6, didn’t spend a day alone in first place until Aug. 15 and still won the World Series.
So it’d be foolish to declare the Braves — as always loaded with homegrown and well-established players who have won in Atlanta — can’t recover and make the playoffs despite completing a disappointing first half of the season last night, when they suffered a second straight shutout in a 13-0 loss to the Philadelphia Phillies.
But the Braves are running out of time — and evidence — to suggest they can once again repeat history.
Atlanta, which is 37-44 despite a run differential of plus-8, is closer to the 14th-place Pittsburgh Pirates (five games ahead) in the NL than the third wild-card spot (7 1/2 games back of the San Francisco Giants). There are four teams between the Braves and the last playoff berth.
“We’ve been there before, we’ve done it, we’ve been as far back as we are right now and ended up winning the division before,” Braves manager Brian Snitker said before striking a note of caution prior to a game against the New York Mets on Monday night.
“I don’t think you can look at that and think this is going to happen.”
It’s been hard to envision a familiar path to the playoffs throughout this slog of a season for the Braves, who opened with seven straight losses and climbed over .500 twice in a three-day span from May 14-16 — but then lost 15 out of their next 19, the worst 19-game stretch for Atlanta since the 2017 season.
The Braves are 18-30 against teams that entered today over .500 — and that includes a 5-2 mark against the Mets, over whom Atlanta has its usual devil magic.
The Braves’ 331 runs are the fewest among the 12 NL teams within 10 games of a playoff spot, while their .697 OPS ranks ahead of only the Giants and San Diego Padres.
The lone players meeting expectations offensively are Ronald Acuña Jr., who has looked like his former MVP self by hitting .366 with nine homers in 32 games since his return from a second torn ACL, and Matt Olson, who is again flirting with a 30/100 season. Marcell Ozuna has 11 homers after going deep 79 times over the previous two seasons, Austin Riley has a career-low .745 OPS, and four other regulars — infielders Ozzie Albies and Nick Allen and outfielders Michael Harris II and Alex Verdugo — possess an OPS at least 25 percent below the league average.
And with Chris Sale out indefinitely due to a broken left rib cage and Raisel Iglesias having pitched his way out of the closer’s job, the Braves can’t even count on their pitching staff shouldering the load as it has for most of the past 35 seasons. Atlanta starters outside of Sale have a 4.23 ERA after Bryce Elder was tagged for nine earned runs in just two innings Friday night.
“Each and every year is its own separate entity and its own separate thing,” Snitker said.
This one may be unique in all the wrong ways for the Braves.
