UFC Fight Night Best Bets: Reinier de Ridder vs. Robert Whittaker Picks

UFC Fight Night is back to Abu Dhabi on Saturday. These are Deadspin’s top betting picks for the entire Robert Whittaker vs. Reinier de Ridder card.

Reinier de Ridder ML +135 vs. Robert Whittaker

I understand why Whittaker’s imposing striking ability and championship résumé let him enter this fight as the favorite, but I really don’t like this matchup for him. De Ridder is an incredibly proficient grappler, having won 13 of his 20 professional fights by submission. He’s looking for his fifth consecutive win and his third of 2025, as he finished Kevin Holland (UFC 321) in January and Bo Nickal (UFC Fight Night) in May.

Whittaker’s last fight against Khamzat Chimaev ended in a loss by way of submission—only his second such loss as a pro—but I have a feeling he’ll suffer a third career submission loss on Saturday night. Although both fighters are 34 years old, De Ridder enters this fight with a more youthful outlook and a fighting style that lends itself to that. I’ll bet the Dutchman stays hot and continues to elevate his name in title discussions. I’ll take him straight up at plus money without too much of a second thought.

Said Nurmagomedov ML +120 vs. Bryce Mitchell

Nurmagomedov is a versatile fighter with strong grappling and stand-up skills, having ended six of his 18 career wins by submission and another four by knockout. Mitchell relies on wrestling but has been choked out in two of his last three losses, most recently falling victim to a ninja choke against “Fighting Nerd” Jean Silva at UFC 314.

That’s especially troubling for Mitchell in this matchup, as Nurmagomedov’s last three wins have come via choke—twice by guillotine and once by ninja choke. Regardless of the variation he chooses, it’s clear chokes are his preferred method of finish. It’s just dumb luck that his opponent has a unique inability to avoid getting choked out, largely because his brainless grappling and takedown attempts leave his neck exposed and ripe for the taking.

Nurmagomedov is faster on his feet, a better technical fighter, and—most importantly—he’s smarter than Mitchell. I expect him to bait the Texarkana, Arkansas, native into giving him exactly what he wants. Even if he doesn’t secure the stoppage, you can still feel comfortable taking Nurmagomedov to win outright at plus money.