When Shota Imanaga and four relievers teamed up to shut out the St. Louis Cardinals on Thursday afternoon, they pushed the Chicago Cubs’ record to 48-33 at the MLB midpoint.
If being on pace for the franchise’s most wins since the 2016 World Series champs doesn’t scream legitimate title contender, then what does?
Perhaps the team’s +100 run differential at the 81-game mark, better than everybody else in the big leagues except the New York Yankees?
Perhaps averaging 5.4 runs per game, which ranks second-best in baseball behind the Los Angeles Dodgers? It’s a remarkably balanced attack, as the Cubs rank among MLB’s top three in homers (120) and steals (96) and seventh in walks (282). Pete Crow-Armstrong is on pace for a 40-40 season. Kyle Tucker is looking at a 30-30 campaign.
When you check advanced defensive stats, the Cubs rank among the top six teams in MLB thanks to Crow-Armstrong, second baseman Nico Hoerner and shortstop Dansby Swanson being the best up-the-middle trio in the world.
Virtually everywhere you look, the Cubs have proven they have what it takes to contend for the championship.
But when you visit online sportsbooks and check their MLB futures, the Cubs are generally listed with the seventh-best odds to win it all. BetMGM says Craig Counsell’s boys are +1400. FanDuel says +1300. DraftKings checks in at +1600. (If you’re thinking about betting on the Cubs to win it all, avoid Caesars’ +900.)
Why are the Cubs treated as such relative long shots? Let’s all say it together: It’s the pitching, stupid.
Now, it was a great sign that Imanaga allowed just one hit and one walk over five innings Thursday in his first start since May 4 due to a hamstring injury.
He gives the Cubs one pitcher who can be counted on to get through an order two or three times when the playoffs arrive. Matthew Boyd, the free-agent signee who owns a 7-3 record and 2.65 ERA in 16 starts, gives the Cubs two playoff-worthy starters — though it should be noted the 34-year-old lefty is already at 91 2/3 innings. He hasn’t thrown this many since going 185 for Detroit in 2019.
Do the Cubs have anyone else worthy of a postseason start? In a word — no.
The metrics say rookie Cade Horton owns a 3.85 expected ERA through his first eight starts, but he blew up Friday night at Houston with seven earned runs in four innings. More relevant to this season’s prospects, though, Horton needs his workload monitored even more closely than Boyd. He has hurled 74 innings this season after averaging just 58 over the last three years.
Jameson Taillon? He allows 2.1 homers per nine innings. Colin Rea? Mediocre. Ben Brown? Inconsistent. Justin Steele? Injured. (As Dean Wormer might say, mediocre, inconsistent and injured is no way to go through life, son.)
To solve this shortcoming, Cubs GM Jed Hoyer and his cabinet need to be even bolder than they were when they acquired Tucker in the offseason.
They have maneuvered themselves into a place where they’re closer to the Dodgers and Mets than they could have realistically projected. But if they’re going to wait to be equals before they strike, then they might as well sell the team.
The Dodgers, with their billions of dollars and their brilliant front office, are never going away. Mets owner Steve Cohen’s wallet will be wide open every offseason and every trade deadline.
That means now’s the time to peel a prospect or five off their thick stack of youngsters and acquire two legitimate starters — guys who can get the Cubs through five innings in an October setting.
And don’t just focus on the rentals.
Check in with the Cleveland Guardians about Tanner Bibee. If the Texas Rangers go south, ask about Nathan Eovaldi. Pittsburgh starter Mitch Keller twirled a gem Friday night against the Mets. Goodness knows the Miami Marlins have projectable pitchers — and their favorite thing to do is swap them for more prospects.
Just know this, Cubs: Baseball lore is filled with teams that ruined their title chances by trying to get by without enough starters. Longtime fans still remember the 1948 Boston Braves and the phrase “Spahn and Sain and pray for rain.”
The Ricketts family ought to know how they’ll be roasted in Chicago if they try to enter this postseason with the motto: “Imanaga and Boyd and gaze mournfully into the void.”
